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07/31/2018 News Release Image

"The Daily Beast" featured Haub Law Professor Mimi Rocah's Co-Authored Piece "Paul Manafort’s Trial Should Be a Slam Dunk for Mueller, but One Big Thing Could Go Wrong"

Trump's ex-campaign chairman goes to trial Tuesday. It would take just one juror to save him and let the president declare the investigation as proven to be a 'witch hunt."

The hotly anticipated trial of Paul Manafort begins Tuesday in federal court in the Eastern District of Virginia. The stakes could not be higher. The 69 year-old Manafort, who once served as President Trump’s campaign chairman, faces criminal charges that could keep him behind bars for the rest of his life. (He already is behind bars awaiting trial because a judge pulled his bail when he got caught trying to tamper with witnesses.)

While Manafort will be the one sitting at the defendant’s table, there is even more at stake than one man’s liberty. The trial inevitably will be seen as a referendum on the Mueller investigation as a whole. A conviction will serve as powerful vindication and legitimization of Robert Mueller and the entire special counsel office’s investigation. Anything short of conviction, on the other hand, will cause convulsions of joy among the “Rigged Witch Hunt” crowd and surely will evoke legendary bursts of Twitter gloating by the president.

Of course, the actual charges against Manafort have very little to do with Trump, and nothing whatsoever to do with Russian election interference. The indictment runs 37 pages and 77 paragraphs, but it boils down to this: Paul Manafort made tens of millions of dollars working for Ukrainian political entities and tried to hide that money and avoid paying U.S. taxes on it by lying to his banks and to the IRS. (Manafort faces a separate slate of charges in a different federal court in Washington, D.C., relating to his work as an unregistered foreign agent in the United States and witness tampering. That trial is set for the fall.)

From a prosecutor’s perspective, the case against Manafort looks strong. Take Manafort’s name out of it, take the politics out of it, and take the media blitz out of it, and this is a fairly routine financial crime case. This is what prosecutors sometimes call a “paper case”: the case can be made largely on bank records and other financial documents. The witnesses promise to be a blandly bureaucratic bunch, including financial witnesses who will be testifying under grants of immunity. (The immunity grants suggest those witnesses might have some marginal exposure themselves, but not enough to justify criminal charges). The most contentious witness likely will be Manafort’s original co-defendant, Rick Gates, who is now cooperating with Mueller. Defense lawyers love to attack cooperating witnesses, but the problem here is that Gates committed his crimes with and for his boss—Manafort. As cooperating witnesses go, Gates is fairly boring (in a good way, for prosecutors).

“Anything short of conviction will cause convulsions of joy among the ‘Rigged Witch Hunt’ crowd and surely will evoke legendary bursts of Twitter gloating by the president.”

While the case seems locked-in, there is one word that must be keeping prosecutors awake at night: nullification. Nullification happens when a jury, or juror, disregards the trial evidence and the law and instead renders a decision based on personal opinions, political or religious beliefs, sympathy, or any other extraneous factor. Jury nullification is very rare, and it is not technically proper—the judge will instruct the jury dozens of times that it is to decide the case solely on the trial evidence and the law—but it also is unavoidable. Jurors are human beings, and human beings sometimes decide based on emotion.

Here, the recipe for nullification is simple. Any juror who is an ardent Trump supporter and disapproves of the Mueller investigation might send a message by voting to acquit. What makes this so scary for Mueller’s prosecutors is that all the defense needs is to catch one nullifying juror (out of 12) to tank the government’s case.

A jury verdict must be unanimous: all 12 jurors must vote to convict for a defendant to be found guilty, or all 12 must vote to acquit for a defendant to be found not guilty. Anything in between—if the jury is split, whether by a 6-6 count or an 11-1 count—results in a hung jury and a mistrial. A hung jury is essentially a tie: nobody wins and, almost always, the case is re-tried. But in reality, a hung jury is a devastating setback for the prosecution and at least a temporary win for the defense, who will tout the jury’s “failure to convict” the defendant. As prosecutors, we’ve had hung juries; take our word for it, they hurt. If the Manafort trial results in a hung jury, the “Rigged Witch Hunt” crowd will pop the locker room bubbly in celebration.

Judge T.S. Ellis is well aware of the possibility of jury nullification, and he has made clear that he will do everything in his power to keep the trial focused on the specific charged conduct and not on Mueller or Trump or Russia. Mueller’s prosecution team and the Manafort defense team alike have promised that they have no interest in inflaming the jury by invoking Trump (except to explain one shady loan application), Mueller, or election interference. And every potential juror will be grilled by the judge about his or her ability to be impartial, to rule solely on the evidence and the law, and to block out media or any other distraction.

All of those steps to guard against jury nullification are smart and important. They also may not be enough. Sure, the jurors will have to promise not to go on the internet or social media and not to read anything about the trial or the players. Some jurors probably will follow these instructions, perhaps some won’t. Either way, it is almost impossible to imagine that the jurors will be unaware of the broader political landscape and the implications of their decision. And if a single member of the jury decides this could be his or her moment to make a statement, then an otherwise rock-solid case could end up as a political casualty.

This is not intended to be alarmist. Jury nullification happens, but very rarely. And it is easy to see how the facts of the case stand for themselves. Manafort made tens of millions of dollars doing shady backroom deals for pro-Russia Ukrainian political groups, then lied and cheated his face off to avoid paying the many millions he rightfully owed the United States in taxes on that work—while you, good juror, worked much harder at an honest job and dutifully paid your taxes on time every year. Throw in the evidence of Manafort’s outrageously lavish lifestyle—the millions spent on luxury homes, landscaping, antiques, cars and clothing—and the jury should be primed to convict.

Ultimately, it will all boil down to a simple question: Will the jury be able to put aside politics and focus solely on the evidence and the law? If so, then Manafort may never see the outside of prison again.

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02/28/19

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"Voice of America" featured Pace University's Haub Law School professor Bennett Gershman in "Cohen uses cancelled checks, financial statements in attacking Trump as 'Con Man'"

02/28/19

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"CBS New York" featured Schimmel Center at Pace University in "NYC’s Top Performing And Visual Arts Events In New York City This Week"

02/28/19

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"Journal of Prison Education and Reentry" featured Pace University's Dyson Associate Professor Kim Collica-Cox in "Implementing Successful Jail-Based Programming for Women: A Case Study of Planning Parenting, Prison & Pups – Waiting to ‘Let the Dogs In'"

02/27/19

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"Hoodline" featured Schimmel Center at Pace University in "The best performing and visual arts events in New York City this week"

02/27/19

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"Star Tribune" featured Pace University's Haub Law School Professor Mimi Rocah in "NY prosecutor's colleagues say he's no Trump puppet"

02/27/19

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"Backstage" featured Pace University’s School of Performing Arts associate director Grant Kretchik in "Do You ACTUALLY Have What it Takes to Study Acting in College?"

02/27/19

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"New York Times" featured Pace University's Elisabeth Haub School of Law professor Darren Rosenblum in "Quotas for women: A Step Toward Equality"

02/27/19

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"The Pace Chronicle" featured Pace University's President Marvin Krislov in "Full Text of President Krislov’s State of the University speech"

02/27/19

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"Crypto Insider" featured Joseph Lubin's Blockchain talk at Pace University's Lubin School of Business in the Schimmel Theatre in "Joseph Lubin: “$4,000 is very high for Bitcoin'"

02/27/19

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"Westchester County Business Journal" featured Pace University's Seidenberg School associate professor Rick Kline in "Pace University hosts robotics competition"

02/27/19

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Press Release: Pace University Students Go from Class to Screen in Los Angeles

02/22/19

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"Wisconsin Public Radio News" featured Pace University's Elisabeth Haub School of Law professor Leslie Tenzer in "Wisconsin Court Rules Judge's Social Media Connection Can Create Appearance Of Bias"

02/21/19

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"Born2Invest" featured Pace University's Lubin School of Business professor Andrew Coggins in "What is the future of airport screening?"

02/21/19

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"CleanTechnica" featured Pace University's executive director of the Pace Energy and Climate Center Karl Rábago in "Renewable Energy Projects Power New England Away From Fossil Fuel Dependence"

02/21/19

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"Broadway World" featured Pace University's Schimmel Center in "Schimmel Center at Pace University Presents LE CHANT DES SIRÈNES"

02/21/19

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"Psy Post" featured Pace University's Dyson College of Arts and Sciences Professor Lisa Rosenthal in "Relationship stigma associated with negative outcomes for individuals well being"

02/21/19

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"New York Real Estate Journal" featured Pace University's ribbon cutting in "Pace University completes $45 million phase 1 project"

02/21/19

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"Forbes" featured Pace University's President Marvin Krislov's latest piece: "What I Learned Teaching Incoming Undergrads In the Fall (Hint: They Need Help With Time Management)"

02/21/19

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"The Examiner News" featured Pace University’s Seidenberg School of Computer Science and Information Systems in “Tech Savvy Teens Compete at Pace’s Robotics Competition”

02/21/19

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"The Examiner" featured Pace Athletics Director Mark Brown in "Pace Athletics Receives $1M Gift From Late AD's Family"

02/21/19

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"Philly" featured Pace Haub Law School professor Bennett Gershman in "Philly judge cites prosecutorial misconduct, vacates conviction of man who spent 28 years on death row"

02/19/19

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"NBC News" featured Jennifer Magas, a clinical associate professor of public relations at Pace University in "Why Sarah Sanders Used the Notes App, Just Like Many Celebrities"

02/19/19

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"New York Post" featured Pace University’s assistant vice president of government and community relations Vanessa Herman in "Pace University pushing MTA to put school’s name on subway stations"

02/19/19

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"National Geographic" featured Karl R. Rábago, the director of the Pace Energy and Climate Center at the Pace Law School in " 3 tests the Green New Deal must pass to work"

02/15/19

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"NBC 2" featured Pace University's Lubin School of Business professor Larry Chiagouris in "Prada asks Ava DuVernay and Theater Gates to lead diversity effort"

02/15/19

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"The Fiscal Times" featured Pace University's Dyson College of Arts and Sciences professor Todd Yarbrough in "Why Smaller Tax Refunds Could Ding the Economy"

02/15/19

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"News12" featured Pace University's Dyson College of Arts and Sciences Associate Professor Dr. Michelle Pulaski-Behling in "Buzz swirls around possibility Elsa has a girlfriend in ‘Frozen 2’"

02/15/19

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"Washington Post" featured Pace University's Lubin School of Business professor Andrew Coggins in "What does the future of airport screening hold?"

02/15/19

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"My Social Good News" featured Pace Athletics in "Pace Receives $1 Million Athletics Gift"

02/14/19

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"Yale Climate Connections" featured Haub Law School executive director of the Pace Energy and Climate Center Karl Rábago in "The Northeast is poised to regain momentum on clean energy"

02/14/19

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"Times Union" featured Pace University in "Your best shot"

02/14/19

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"Broadway World" featured Pace University in "Schimmel Center at Pace University Presents Battery Dance, World Premiere of The Red Line"

02/14/19

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Press Release: Pace Athletics Receives $1 Million Gift

02/14/19

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"Broadway World" featured Pace University's Actors Studio Drama School professor Kate T. Billingsley in "Modern Farce BAREFOOT Extends Through March 2"

02/13/19

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"Hoodline" featured Pace University in "The best comedy events in New York City this week"

02/13/19

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"Irish Echo" featured Pace University in "Kirwan for Pace performance"

02/13/19

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"Law & Crime" featured Pace University's Haub Law School Professor Mimi Rocah in "‘He’s Not an Attorney’: Legal Experts Suggest Senate Intel Cmte Chair’s Collusion Comments Are Misleading"

02/13/19

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Press Release: FIRST Tech Challenge Draws Tech Savvy Teens to Pace University for Robotics Competition

02/12/19

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"Fios1" featured Pace University's Seidenberg robotics competition in "Robotics competition inspires students to craft space rovers"

02/11/19

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"News-Medical.net" featured Pace University's Parenting, Prison, and Pups in "Using therapy dogs reduces stress and improves emotional well-being in vulnerable adults"

02/11/19

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"KSNT News" featured Pace University’s Lubin School of Business marketing professor Larry Chiagouris in "Gucci pulls sweater evoking racist imagery from online stores"

02/11/19

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"Broadway World" featured Pace University in "Schimmel Center at Pace University Presents IRELAND AND AMERICA"

02/11/19

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"CBS" featured Pace University’s Lubin School of Business marketing professor Larry Chiagouris in "Gucci blackface: Luxury designers miss mark with consumers"

02/11/19

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"Everyday MBA Podcast" featured Pace University's Lubin School of Business Dean Neil Braun in "STEM Education – Are Students Prepared?"

02/11/19

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"Cnet" featured Pace University's associate professor of public relations Jennifer Magas in "Jeff Bezos goes from geek to National Enquirer gossip fodder"

02/11/19

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"Newsday" featured Pace University’s Lubin School of Business marketing professor Larry Chiagouris in "Gucci pulls 'blackface sweater' from stores after complaints"

02/08/19

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"KEPR 19" featured Pace University’s Lubin School of Business marketing professor Larry Chiagouris in "From Gucci to Prada, fashion fails evoke racist imagery"

02/08/19

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"Tribune Content Agency" featured Pace University’s Lubin School of Business marketing professor Larry Chiagouris in "How to best start a resume"

02/07/19

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"Tribeca Trib" featured Pace University's Schimmel Center in "New Shanghai Circus at Schimmel Center"

02/07/19

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"Daily Mail" featured Pace University's Lubin School of Business marketing professor Larry Chiagouris in "Super Bowl ads speak more to women, female empowerment"

02/07/19

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"News12" featured Pace University's all female student body government in "Pace University students discuss importance of more women in leadership roles"

02/06/19

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"Broadway World" featured Pace University in "Schimmel Center At Pace University Presents New Shanghai Circus, 2/24"

02/06/19

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"CNN Business" featured Pace University's Lubin School of Business marketing professor Randi Priluck in "Instagram-worthy rest stops offer free lodging, laundry for touring musicians with a catch"

02/06/19

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"Free Malaysia Today" featured Pace University's Lubin School of Business marketing professor Larry Chiagouris in "Super Bowl ads speak more to women, female empowerment"

02/05/19

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"ABC 57 News" featured Pace University's Lubin School of Business marketing professor Randi Priluck in "Rest stops offer free lodging, laundry for touring musicians with a catch"

02/05/19

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"INSIDER" featured Sabrina Blefgen, a student at The Elisabeth Haub School of Law at Pace University in "8 things 'Legally Blonde' got right about law school and 6 it got wrong"

02/05/19

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"NBC News" quoted Cornell L. Craig, the director of diversity programs at Pace University in "Liam Neeson says he wanted to kill a black man after friend's rape"

02/04/19

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"Patch" featured Pace University in "Pace U, Kendal On Hudson Create Partnership"

02/04/19